Click here for the most recent Baird Retail Earnings Scorecard, summarizing earnings reports across the sector.
In addition, below are a few key themes our research team is highlighting:
- Calendar context. The last time Christmas was on a Wednesday was in 2013, with lower traffic leading to the holidays and strong acceleration into the Christmas week. Broader cross-channel retail indicators point to a healthy start to the holiday season, while the calendar sets up for a stronger finish in stores.
- Brick-and-mortar traffic only a piece of the story. It is important to remember that the lines between digital and physical sales continue to blur, especially as retailers lean into omni-channel capabilities.
- Bifurcation of spending. The gap between value-driven concepts that deliver strong omni-channel experiences continues to widen vs. department stores. For brands, distribution quality and inventory control (including DTC) remain vital.
- Positive sentiment into Q4. With a healthy consumer, generally positive commentary from retail management teams over the past couple weeks, a decent weather backdrop, traffic improvement in early November and positive digital indicators, there appears to be early momentum as retailers were quick out of the gate with holiday promotions in hopes of counteracting the condensed period between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
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